On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows recent Bitcoin losses have been driven largely by newly minted “whales,” suggesting panic selling among big but short-lived holders during last week’s drawdown.
What the data shows
- CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn highlighted on X that whale-sized addresses—defined as wallets holding more than 1,000 BTC (excluding miners and exchanges)—realized a significant amount of losses over the past week.
- Whales are split into two groups by how long they’ve held their coins: Short-Term Holder (STH) or “New” Whales (purchases within the past 155 days, roughly five months), and Long-Term Holder (LTH) or “Old” Whales (held longer than that cutoff).
- Historically, longer holding periods correlate with lower likelihood to sell, so New Whales are viewed as the weaker-handed cohort while Old Whales are seen as more steadfast.
Scale of the sell-off
- The realized loss chart Maartunn shared shows the losses were concentrated among New Whales (shaded blue on the chart). Over the past week, STH Whales realized about $1.77 billion in losses—a sign that large recent entrants capitulated as prices fell.
- LTH Whales have so far kept realized losses much more contained.
Where price sits and what it could mean
- The pullback took BTC to a low near $59,000, not far above the network’s Realized Price (the cost basis of the average on-chain investor). Maartunn puts Bitcoin’s current Realized Price at about $53,630.
- Bitcoin has not closed below the Realized Price this cycle; if the downtrend continues, a retest is possible. Maartunn noted that historically, dips beneath that level have been attractive dollar-cost-averaging (DCA) opportunities for long-term buyers.
Market snapshot
- At the time of Maartunn’s post, BTC was trading around $63,300, down more than 13% over the past week.
Takeaway
On-chain metrics suggest this week’s pain was concentrated among newer, large holders who likely bought more recently and sold into weakness, while longer-term whales have stayed relatively patient. The Realized Price remains an important on-chain support to watch—both for price action and for gauging whether longer-term investors start to shift behavior.
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