XRP is trying to claw back the $1.15 area after sliding to its lowest point since 2024, a drop that wiped out months of recovery and left the market with little clarity on near-term direction. A fresh analysis from Arab Chain — focused on Binance trading volumes — sheds important light on what drove the decline and whether the current bounce has the trading energy behind it to stick.
What the volume data showed
- Arab Chain tracked an XRP Volume Z-Score on Binance (a measure of how current volume deviates from the 30‑day average). The Z-Score spiked to about 4.5 — the highest reading in four months — during the recent sell-off. Readings that high typically indicate a dramatic surge in activity tied to big price moves, forced liquidations, or large repositioning by sizable holders.
- Crucially, the 4.5 spike occurred while price was falling toward roughly $1.13, signaling that the surge was dominated by sell-side execution rather than buying interest. The index then collapsed back to around -0.70, meaning volume has already normalized below the 30‑day average.
- Arab Chain’s takeaway: the sharp, short-lived burst of sell-side volume likely reflects either accelerated exits by traders or large holders restructuring positions. Either way, such episodes tend to be followed by continued volatility as markets absorb the new supply-demand balance — and the quick normalization suggests that the exceptional activity has mostly run its course rather than paused.
Technical picture: key levels to watch
- XRP is attempting to stabilize around $1.15 after one of its deepest corrections since the 2024 breakout. Weekly price action shows sellers have erased nearly all gains from the first half of 2025.
- The most consequential level now is the 200‑week moving average (about $1.10–$1.15). Historically this MA has been trend-defining; holding above it is critical. A clear break below would open the door to a retest of $1.00 and potentially $0.85–$0.90.
- The broader trend remains bearish: XRP trades below the 50‑week and 100‑week moving averages, both sloping down. A recent rejection around $1.40–$1.50 reaffirmed seller control.
- For bullish momentum to return, reclaiming $1.30 — and then $1.50 — would be necessary. Until then, the primary focus is whether XRP can defend the 200‑week MA and avoid a deeper breakdown below $1.10.
Bottom line
Volume data from Binance shows the recent slump was accompanied by a concentrated, sell‑side volume surge that has already dissipated, raising the odds of continued choppy trading as the market digests the move. Technically, the 200‑week moving average near $1.10–$1.15 is the make-or-break level — defending it keeps downside limited; losing it risks a retest of $1.00 and lower. Traders should watch volume and whether buyers can meaningfully lift price above $1.30 to shift the narrative.
Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news
