Glassnode analyst: nearly half a million BTC sitting at break-even above $80K, and that could be blocking a durable rally
Glassnode’s lead research analyst CryptoVizArt says Bitcoin’s path to a sustained recovery may depend on a simple-but-painful shift: the large supply that currently sits clustered at cycle-high price levels needs to move into new hands at lower cost bases.
Reading the cost-basis map
Using the Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) — an on-chain heatmap that shows how much BTC was acquired at each historical price level — CryptoVizArt highlights a prominent supply cluster between roughly $80,000 and $126,000. That zone contains a very large amount of coins, with the chart showing nearly 495,000 BTC sitting near those break-even levels. Much of that accumulation built up as Bitcoin consolidated since February.
Those top-tier clusters used to be even denser around $126K during the 2025 bull market, but the recent downturn has pushed supply to change hands at lower prices, loosening some of the concentration. Still, the $80K-plus zone remains dominant versus clusters below $80K.
Why it matters for price action
Holders who bought near cycle highs are now deep in unrealized losses. Historically, underwater investors often sell once price approaches their break-even points, which can cap rallies — a dynamic that CryptoVizArt says likely contributed to May’s stalled recovery.
“For a sustained recovery to take shape, this supply needs to gradually migrate into new buyers’ hands at lower cost basis levels,” the analyst notes. As that “wall” of high-cost coins softens, selling pressure eases and demand can rebuild with more conviction. Glassnode adds that this transition has frequently required time and, in some cycles, a deeper correction or extended bear-market phase to complete.
What to watch next
The key on-chain signal to monitor is how the CBD evolves: will those top buyers capitulate and distribute coins to lower-cost holders, or will the supply persist at elevated break-even levels and continue to cap upward moves?
Market snapshot
Last week BTC briefly tumbled to about $59,000, but it rebounded to open Monday around $63,200 as traders watch whether selling pressure from those high-cost holders abates.
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