Solana looks to be settling into a corrective phase after a sharp sell-off reinforced bearish momentum, with analysts warning the token could either stabilize briefly or set up for another leg lower.
Wave 4 consolidation after a decisive breakdown
Elliott Waves Academy’s 30‑minute analysis finds SOL entering a Wave 4 correction after breaking down from its price channel. The recent tumble pushed the move to the 261.80% Fibonacci extension — a sign the impulsive Wave 3 has likely run its course and the market has tilted decisively bearish.
Wave 4 is expected to be a softer, sideways pause rather than a strong recovery. Given the heavy selling earlier in the sequence, the correction will likely take the form of range-bound action or a corrective triangle as the market searches for direction. But the pause may be temporary: a break below the correction’s support would pave the way for Wave 5 and open downside targets in the $81.33–$78.69 area.
“Wave 3 has been the dominant driver of the current bearish structure; now traders should watch how Wave 4 plays out,” the analysis concluded, highlighting the key support and the potential trigger for the next decline.
Three months of consolidation — then a powerful breakout
Crypto analyst Daan Crypto Trades added context on recent price behavior, noting that SOL produced the expected 20–30% move after finally exiting a multi‑month trading range. Extended consolidation periods typically compress volatility; when price finally breaks out, momentum can accelerate quickly.
Daan stressed the importance of confirmation: traders who wait for a clear escape from a range that’s held for three months or more are better positioned to capture fast, decisive moves rather than trying to anticipate them.
SOL is now retesting a critical weekly support zone that Daan describes as “one of the last major support areas on the chart.” Holding that level — and reclaiming nearby horizontal resistance — would be necessary to rebuild bullish momentum and give credence to any renewed upside thesis.
What to watch next
- Short term: expect sideways consolidation as Wave 4 develops; watch for a corrective triangle or range-bound price action.
- Bearish trigger: a breakdown below the correction’s support could signal Wave 5 and target $81.33–$78.69.
- Bullish scenario: holding the weekly support and reclaiming horizontal resistance would strengthen the case for another upward leg.
Traders should monitor these technical zones closely and wait for confirmation before sizing positions, as the next confirmed directional move could be swift.
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