Glassnode’s lead research analyst, CryptoVizArt, says Bitcoin’s path to a sustained recovery may hinge on a major reshuffle of who holds the coins — and at what cost.
In a recent post on X, CryptoVizArt highlighted the on-chain Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) — an indicator that maps how much BTC was bought at each historical price level. The CBD chart shows a pronounced cluster of supply sitting between roughly $80,000 and $126,000. That band contains an unusually large share of coins — approaching 495,000 BTC — that were accumulated near cycle highs (including the 2025 top) and now sit close to their owners’ break-even points.
That cluster has been building since Bitcoin’s consolidation beginning in February. Although it isn’t the densest zone on the map anymore (levels around $126,000 weakened as supply changed hands lower during the downturn), the over-$80k region still represents a dominant supply wall relative to ranges below $80k.
Why this matters: holders who are underwater or near break-even often sell as prices approach their cost basis, creating a sale pressure that can cap rallies — a dynamic CryptoVizArt says likely contributed to the stalled recovery in May. For a durable upside to develop, that high-cost supply needs to shift into the hands of new buyers with lower cost bases. As the “wall” of sellers softens, the overhang eases and demand can rebuild with conviction.
According to the analyst, that redistribution typically takes time and can require a deeper correction or an extended bear-market phase to complete.
Market near-term: Bitcoin dipped to about $59,000 last week but opened Monday with a recovery, trading around $63,200. The evolving CBD will be a key metric to watch to see whether the top-tier holders finally capitulate and allow a cleaner, sustained rally.
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