Bitcoin’s current slide marks the shallowest bear market in its history — but don’t call the bottom just yet.
What’s happened so far
- June has been a down-only month for Bitcoin, with double-digit losses as ETF outflows accelerate against a backdrop of rising geopolitical and macroeconomic tensions.
- Bitcoin is about 50% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080 (CoinGecko). By comparison, earlier cycles saw much deeper collapses: a >90% drawdown in 2012 (CryptoQuant), roughly 82% in the next two cycles, and 74% in 2022. The 50% drop this cycle underscores a clear trend: drawdowns are getting shallower.
Why drawdowns are compressing
- Industry observers point to Bitcoin’s maturation. “Bitcoin is now a more institutionalized macro asset, supported by ETFs, deeper liquidity, and a larger base of long-term allocators,” Jeff Ko, chief analyst at CoinEx, told Decrypt.
- Martin Lee of DWF Labs adds that institutions and corporations on balance sheets have changed the holder composition, making drawdowns and volatility more muted compared with past cycles.
Why the bottom is still in doubt
- Despite the shallower decline, analysts say the bear market likely has further to run. Ko calls the 50% drop a “meaningful reset” but not the end of the cycle, urging investors to watch ETF outflows, macro tightening, and liquidity rotation to gauge how long the downturn will last.
- Alex Tsepaev, CSO at B2PRIME Group, points to sustained ETF outflows and on-chain stress. He notes that since May 18 there has been only one day of ETF inflows (June 4), highlighting how weak the passive bid has become.
- Market-maker Wintermute similarly argues that the $62,000 support has broken and that Bitcoin spent little time between $50,000–$59,000 on the way up in 2024, leaving flow — not technicals — as the primary driver.
Key price levels and market sentiment
- Analysts identify $60,000 as the first critical psychological line. A bearish scenario would include retests of $55,000 and potentially $45,000.
- Prediction-market users on Myriad (owned by Decrypt parent Dastan) have shifted strongly bearish: the chance that Bitcoin’s next move hits $55,000 rose to 72% from 39% on June 1.
What could form a bottom
- Ko highlights two catalysts that could help forge a bottom: 1) geopolitical de-escalation, which could ease the risk-off backdrop and prompt a dovish pivot or halt to Fed hikes, and 2) renewed ETF demand.
- Monitoring these macro and flow signals will be crucial for timing any durable reversal.
Altcoins: signs of idiosyncratic recovery
- Not all tokens are moving in lockstep with Bitcoin. DWF’s Martin Lee points to Hyperliquid’s HYPE diverging from broader market weakness as a potential sign that protocols are increasingly being priced on their own fundamentals — a trait more typical of mature markets. “Not every token will recover,” Lee cautions, “but assets will get priced according to their merits over time.”
Bottom line
Bitcoin’s shallower drawdown reflects growing institutionalization and deeper liquidity, but macro pressures and sustained ETF outflows mean the bear market probably isn’t over. Watch ETF flow, macro policy signals, and the $60k/$55k levels — and keep an eye on altcoins for signs that some projects are decoupling and finding value on their own.
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