Crypto analyst Merlijn says Bitcoin is tracing a century-old pattern first mapped by legendary 1920s trader Jesse Livermore — and that the structure could dictate BTC’s next major move.
In a pair of posts on X, Merlijn laid out two possible scenarios tied to a few clear price thresholds. He argues that Bitcoin has replicated Livermore’s “accumulation” sequence almost step-for-step and that whether BTC breaks out or breaks down hinges on how it behaves around key levels.
What Merlijn is watching
- Bull-confirmation: A sustained hold above $70,000 would, in his view, confirm the next bullish leg. His chart shows a potential run to roughly $170,000 — a new all-time high — by the end of the year or into early 2027. That peak would then mark a cycle top, with a subsequent retrace toward about $90,000.
- Bear/flush scenario: Conversely, Merlijn also sees room for one more downside move inside a descending channel. He points to higher lows and repeated rejections at resistance, suggesting a “final flush” to roughly $45,000 could be likely before a major breakout. From that washout-low, he expects BTC could ultimately surge to about $140,000.
- Invalidating the flush: The analyst notes the $45,000 flush would be negated if BTC holds $65,000 and the descending channel breaks to the upside. If BTC loses that $65,000 foothold, Merlijn says the more painful downside target (the “max pain” scenario) would activate.
A second chartist’s entry window
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez echoed the idea that a last “discount window” could be closing before the next bull cycle. Martinez says if historical fractals repeat, there’s a potential golden entry window between October 6 and October 16, with a buy zone between $41,500 and $45,000. He frames that zone as a possible launchpad for the start of a new four-year Bitcoin cycle, writing that “the countdown to the next Bitcoin vertical move has begun.”
Context and near-term trigger levels
Both analysts have emphasized a narrow range where traders should be alert. Martinez recently called BTC a “no-trade zone” until price decisively breaks out of the range he identified; Merlijn flagged $70,685 (upside trigger) and $65,636 (downside trigger) as important decision points. At the time of writing, CoinMarketCap data shows Bitcoin trading around $70,600, up just over 3% in the last 24 hours.
Bottom line
Merlijn’s take leans on an old-school Livermore accumulation fractal that points to either a high-momentum rally to six-figure territory or one last shakeout before a major run. Martinez provides a complementary view, identifying a specific buy window if history repeats. Together they offer a clear set of levels for traders to watch: roughly $70k and above for bullish confirmation, $65k as a key inflection, and the $41.5k–$45k band as the potential deep-buy zone.
This is market analysis, not financial advice — watch for confirmed price action and manage risk around these thresholds.
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