XRP remains capped below a key resistance level as investor pain mounts and on‑exchange liquidity dries up, creating a precarious setup that could spark sharp moves in either direction.
After a recent sell‑off the token has struggled to reclaim $1.50, and market tracker and investor BankXRP reported on X that more than 60% of XRP’s circulating supply — roughly 36.8 billion XRP — is now sitting underwater. That paper loss translates to over $50 billion in unrealized losses, underscoring how far many holders are from breakeven and why sentiment has cooled.
At today’s price of about $1.35, holders who bought above the current level face a breakeven near $1.44. BankXRP warns that selling pressure could pick up around that $1.44 mark as breakeven holders look to exit, potentially capping attempts to rally in the short term. Conversely, if XRP can push past that resistance and clear broader cycle obstacles, analysts say it could reduce overhead resistance and set the stage for a classic bullish cycle later on.
Compounding the issue, liquidity on exchanges is evaporating and order books are thinning — a trend highlighted by Arthur, CIO of Royal Peak Cap, who says liquidity on Binance has “completely collapsed.” The 30‑day liquidity index has plunged to near‑zero levels, mirroring a collapse in trading volume that fell from over $200 billion in January 2025 to almost nothing today. Lower liquidity amplifies volatility and increases the likelihood of outsized price swings.
That liquidity picture is a double‑edged sword. From a bullish perspective, thin supply on exchanges implies long‑term holders are not selling, so any renewed buying pressure could trigger a rapid squeeze higher. From a cautious viewpoint, fading trader interest and sparse order books leave the market vulnerable to sudden moves and extended stagnation. Historically, periods of extremely low liquidity have preceded large directional moves — both up and down.
What to watch next: price behavior around the $1.44–$1.50 resistance band, exchange order‑book depth and flows, and short‑term liquidity metrics. Together they’ll help indicate whether XRP’s next major move will be a relief rally or continued consolidation under pressure.
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