Bitcoin’s bounce from the Feb. 6 low of $60,000 is beginning to show structural improvement—but it still reads more like a bear-market rally than a confirmed breakout, CryptoQuant analyst Maartun said in an April 20 video.
What’s improved
- Long-term holders are accumulating. Over the past 30 days, Maartun says long-term holder supply rose by roughly 354,000 BTC, a level he calls “structural accumulation” because it takes coins out of active circulation and reduces sensitivity to short-term volatility.
- Strategic capital has arrived. Maartun pointed to a rapid capital raise by “Strategy” that pulled in about $2.66 billion in 48 hours ($1.16 billion on April 13 and $1.56 billion on April 14), signaling institutional or strategic demand.
Why the rally remains suspect
- Short-term holders are still selling into strength. About 60,000 BTC moved to exchanges recently from short-term holders while SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) remained below 1, meaning those sellers are realizing losses—not a sign of confident profit-taking typical of bull runs.
- Whales may be distributing. Wallets holding more than 100 BTC have ramped up exchange inflows, suggesting larger holders are taking advantage of higher prices to offload inventory.
- Price still below a key pivot. Bitcoin is trading around $75,000—about 24% above the Feb. low—but remains under Maartun’s short-term holder realized price (~$83,000). He views that level as a structural pivot: in bull markets price tends to stay above it; in weaker phases it often acts as resistance.
Maartun’s read: the market’s character matters more than the headline move. The coexistence of improving long-term structure and active near-term selling creates a “fairly balanced but not yet bullish picture.” If demand continues to absorb supply and price clears the short-term holder realized price, the improving internal structure could translate into a durable uptrend. Until then, the rebound deserves caution—an upgraded foundation without a clear, proven breakout.
At press time, BTC traded at $75,088.
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