Bitcoin’s derivatives market is showing signs of a genuine bullish rebuild, not just a short-covering bounce, according to a new morning brief from on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. Traders watching whether the recent rally has structural support should take note: Adler says rising positioning and a sharp uptick in futures open interest point to fresh risk-taking across the market.
Key signals
- The 30-day moving average of Adler’s Bitcoin Positioning Index (SMA-30d) has climbed to 4.5 — its highest level in four months.
- The daily Positioning Index reached 40.1.
- Bitcoin futures open interest, measured as a 30-day change, is up 14.5% — one of the strongest readings in the last 120 days.
- Additionally, 23 of the past 30 days closed with positive open interest, a sign of sustained leverage inflows.
Why it matters
Adler’s framework distinguishes two different drivers of a rally: short-covering (where old bearish bets are closed) versus new risk-taking (fresh long exposure and leverage). If the Positioning SMA-30d rises while open interest falls, that points to clearing of old shorts. But when both the SMA-30d and open interest climb together, it indicates new capital and leverage are entering the trade — a deeper, more structural shift. Adler says the market is showing the latter scenario now, calling it a “sustained upward leverage rebuild.”
A notable shift from earlier in the year
Adler contrasts the current setup with February, when the SMA-30d bottomed at -10.9 as Bitcoin traded below $63,000. Since then the indicator has recovered more than 15 points, moving from what he described as a damaged positioning structure into a steadier, improving trend. He also notes that a similar-looking surge in January failed to stick because open interest did not confirm the move; this time, OI is confirming.
Risk controls and what could break the thesis
The analyst is clear that the structure isn’t risk-free. Two deterioration signals would undercut the bullish thesis: (1) open interest rolling back below zero on a 30-day basis — implying renewed deleveraging — and (2) the SMA-30d reversing and slipping back below zero, turning the current build into a failed spike. As long as OI remains positive and the positioning average climbs, Adler’s base case remains constructive.
Market snapshot
At the time of the brief, BTC traded around $78,620.
Bottom line: The confluence of a rising positioning average and strong open interest gains suggests derivatives traders are reloading with fresh leverage rather than merely covering shorts — a development that, if sustained, lends more structural credibility to Bitcoin’s recent recovery.
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