Bitcoin shook off early-week nerves to push toward fresh highs this week, but stalled just short of a key milestone — and on-chain data helps explain why.
After dipping below $74,000, BTC climbed to an almost three-month peak above $79,000 on Wednesday, April 22. The rally, however, ran into resistance and failed to clear the $80,000 mark, prompting analysts to point to a specific on-chain level that likely capped gains.
True Market Mean Price: a practical ceiling
Alphractal founder Joao Wedson flagged the True Market Mean Price (TMMP) on X as a major reason the rally slowed. The TMMP estimates the average cost basis of active market participants by excluding dormant (or lost) coins and miner revenue, focusing instead on the circulating supply that actually moves. Because it better reflects the holdings and psychology of traders — who have more influence on price than long-term inactive wallets — the TMMP often acts as a dynamic support or resistance level.
Wedson noted the TMMP stopped BTC from holding above $79,000 this week and pointed out it previously provided meaningful support in late 2025 (per his chart). He also urged caution: even if BTC pushes past the TMMP, investors should wait roughly three days for a confirmed breakout. “Otherwise, the higher probability is that bears may gain some control over price in the coming days/week,” he wrote.
FOMO cools the upside
Sentiment shifts also played a role. On Thursday, April 23, analytics firm Santiment flagged growing euphoria — a classic FOMO signal — as BTC approached $80,000. While Santiment acknowledged a true breach could draw new and returning traders, it warned that a sustainable move would be healthier if optimism eased somewhat: “Prices can continue to rally, and a breach above this resistance level would be massive in bringing in new and returning traders. However, it will ideally happen when optimism calms down just slightly.”
Where things stand
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades near $77,588, down about 0.3% over the past 24 hours. The coming days will likely be a test of whether the market can decisively clear the TMMP and maintain momentum — or whether short-term euphoria hands control back to the bears.
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