Bitcoin’s recent countertrend rally to $82,800 hasn’t convinced one prominent analyst that the bear market is over. Benjamin Cowen, founder and CEO of Into The Cryptoverse, argues the bounce actually reinforces his bearish thesis — because it repeats a pattern he says we’ve seen before.
Why Cowen remains skeptical
- Rejection at the 200‑day simple moving average: Cowen highlights a recurring failure to hold above the 200‑day SMA — the same behavior observed ahead of the final leg down in 2018 and 2022. That technical rejection, he says, is a classic bear-market signal.
- Rally duration: Some countertrend rallies in previous cycles ran longer than 20 weeks. The current bounce lasted 16 weeks, which Cowen contends undermines the claim that Bitcoin has already found a durable floor.
Cycle timing supports his view
Cowen points to timing as further evidence. Bitcoin’s run to a $126,200 peak in October 2025 fell within the expected four‑year cycle window when measured from the previous low to the high. Because the top occurred “on schedule,” he argues the same cycle framework should apply to the bottom — and past cycles placed their lows in the late middle year (December 2018 and November 2022). Based on that pattern, Cowen expects the ultimate bottom to arrive toward the end of 2026.
Charts he shared
Cowen published two charts meant to illustrate the thesis:
- Return on investment from cycle peak to bear market low.
- Multiplier from bear market lows to the next bull market peak.
Both charts, he says, follow the shape of prior cycles even if the absolute numbers this cycle are muted.
Timing for the next leg down
Cowen previously flagged May–June as the window when a significant decline could begin, and expects any downside to push Bitcoin below the February 6 low of about $60,000 — a level some analysts have treated as the cycle bottom.
Pushback from other analysts
Not everyone agrees. For example, analyst Sykodelic has predicted Bitcoin could surpass $90,000 in June after retesting a key support level. The divergence highlights a wider split in market interpretation: some traders see the four‑year halving-driven cycle as still governing price action, while others believe changing market structure and liquidity make past cycles less predictive.
Bottom line
Cowen’s take is a reminder that technical patterns and cycle timing still carry weight for many crypto analysts. Whether this rally proved to be a dead cat bounce or the beginning of a fresh run will depend on whether Bitcoin can break and hold above major moving averages and key support levels — or whether history repeats with another leg lower toward a late‑2026 trough.
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