Bitcoin found itself testing a critical long-term support this week: the 200-week moving average, sitting around $61,700 — a level that has marked the bottom of every major Bitcoin bear cycle since 2015. The line held, at least for now, after a wild 24-hour session that erased hundreds of millions of dollars in leveraged positions.
Price action and liquidations
The selloff pushed BTC down to about $61,300 before buyers stepped in and sent the price back above $64,750, a recovery of more than 5%. Some of the lift came alongside reports of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, but the immediate market move was dominated by a massive liquidation event. CoinGlass data shows over $740 million in BTC positions were liquidated within 24 hours; long traders bore the brunt, losing more than $623 million in bullish bets.
Technical picture: bear flag vs. relief bounce
On the weekly chart, Bitcoin still looks vulnerable. A bear-flag breakdown appears to be in progress, with the pattern projecting a potential slide into the $50,000–$52,000 area. That bearish case has been reinforced by rising trading volume on the downside leg and BTC’s failure to reclaim the flag’s upper trend line after Thursday’s bounce.
But traders are split. Some see the long lower wick on the candle as evidence that buyers aggressively defended the 200-week MA. Analyst ZordXBT flagged that wick as bullish evidence, while trader RidaaXBT suggested the liquidation wave may have cleared short-term selling pressure and called for a relief rally toward $69,000–$70,000.
Skeptics warn of a trap
Other market participants urged caution. Trader Hitman42.eth warned the bounce could be a sucker rally that attracts new longs before another leg down, noting roughly $600 million in long positions were vaporized in about an hour during the flush to $61k.
Why the 200-week MA matters
The 200-week moving average is a widely watched long-term trend line for Bitcoin — it held at major lows in 2018 and again during the March 2020 crash. As long as BTC remains above roughly $61,700, the bear-flag breakdown can’t be considered confirmed. A convincing recovery from this level would put $70,000 back on the table as the next meaningful upside target.
Bottom line
This week’s touch of the 200-week MA is a pivotal moment: it could be the start of a more durable turnaround or merely a pause before deeper downside. Traders and investors are watching volume, the flag pattern’s upper trend line, and whether BTC can hold above the 200-week line to determine which path is more likely.
Featured image: Gemini. Chart: TradingView.
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