On-chain data shows demand for Bitcoin has plunged over the past month to levels not seen since the fallout after the Terra/LUNA collapse, according to CryptoQuant’s head of research Julio Moreno.
Moreno shared a chart on X tracking the 30-day change in total Bitcoin demand—defined as the combined inflows into spot and futures markets. The chart shows demand climbed during April and the first half of May alongside a price spike, but that rise was almost entirely driven by derivatives activity; spot demand actually fell during the rally.
That detail matters. Historically, sustained Bitcoin bull runs have required rising demand in both spot and derivatives markets. Moreno points out the green setups that underpinned the 2024 and 2025 rallies reflected that broader participation. By contrast, the recent recovery was largely speculative, and the market quickly reversed once that speculative bid faded.
Today the 30-day total-demand change sits at -501,000 BTC—the weakest reading since May 2022. “Bitcoin demand is contracting at a pace comparable to the post-Terra/Luna collapse period,” Moreno warned. For context, the post-Terra/LUNA contraction in 2022 reached -559,000 BTC during the blowup that followed UST losing its dollar peg and the Terra ecosystem’s collapse.
While the current metric hasn’t yet matched that peak outflow, the trajectory raises the possibility of similarly steep demand losses if the trend continues. The fallout has already hit prices: Bitcoin has slid to about $63,200, its lowest level since February.
What happens next will depend on whether spot buyers return to offset the waning speculative flows—or whether the contraction deepens and broadens across the market.
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