Veteran crypto analyst Bob Loukas says Bitcoin has likely entered the final stage of its current four‑year cycle — but investors shouldn’t assume the low is already in. In a June 4 update to his “4‑Year Journey” series, Loukas framed Bitcoin’s recent retest of February lows as a predictable part of cycle behavior, not an unexpected structural break.
Loukas pointed to October’s peak and Bitcoin’s subsequent breach of its 10‑month moving average as the signal that the last cycle advance had ended. The sell‑off into February produced a classic relief rally: price recovered into May — approaching the low‑$80,000 area after dipping toward $60,000 in February — before reversing and sliding roughly 25% back toward those earlier lows. Loukas argued this bounce looked like a countertrend within a broader bear structure, not the start of a renewed bull run.
“A cycle very rarely — and I mean less than 10%, probably more like 5% — will end very early and also on the first significant decline from the high,” Loukas said. “There’s always a retest. There’s generally always a lower low, at least one lower low, if not a second lower low.”
Reaccumulating, not bottom‑calling
Despite caution that a durable cycle low may still be ahead, Loukas has begun to reaccumulate. His model portfolio executed its first buy in three and a half years, purchasing 10 BTC at about $65,000. That move brought the allocation to roughly 58% Bitcoin and 41% cash — a deliberate step to start layering in exposure without declaring the trough.
The next decisive level for Loukas is $53,000. If Bitcoin falls to that area, the model would deploy its remaining cash to return to a full Bitcoin allocation. Loukas views $53,000 as the midpoint of the broader four‑year cycle structure — not an extreme outcome in Bitcoin terms — and estimates it would represent about a 57% decline from the cycle high.
Context and probabilities
Loukas reminded readers that past bear markets have seen far deeper drawdowns (the 2021–2022 cycle saw a ~77% peak‑to‑trough fall), and said a 65–70% drawdown “shouldn’t become a surprise” given Bitcoin’s historical volatility. Still, he allowed for a more bullish — albeit lower‑probability — path: the recent retest could form a shorter cycle low, perhaps as a double bottom and base into late summer, before a later push above May highs. He assigns that scenario around a 25% chance.
His base case remains that the cycle low will align with the traditional window in the autumn or early winter. Bitcoin is now in month 43 of the four‑year cycle, getting close to the 47–48 month average where previous cycle lows have emerged. “The window has been hit,” Loukas said. “The four‑year cycle now is getting close or getting towards an end. But this is not any different to prior cycles.”
Near‑term outlook
In the short term, Loukas sees Bitcoin as oversold enough to bounce — potentially toward the 10‑week moving average near $73,000 — before resuming a lower trajectory. He also warned that BTC likely should not reclaim the May high (~$83,000–$85,000) over the coming months unless a new cycle has already begun.
Key levels and actions to watch
- Recent buy: 10 BTC at ~$65,000 (model allocation now ~58% BTC, ~41% cash)
- Critical level for full reaccumulation: $53,000 (midpoint of four‑year cycle)
- Near‑term resistance to watch: 10‑week MA around ~$73,000; May highs near $83k–$85k
- Loukas’ base case: cycle low around Oct–Nov (month ~47–48); bullish double‑bottom scenario probability ~25%
At press time, BTC traded at $62,247.
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