The cryptocurrency market has been under heavy selling pressure this past week, and Cardano (ADA) was one of the hardest-hit large-cap tokens. CoinGecko data shows ADA has slid more than 30% over the last seven days, and plunged roughly 16% in the past 24 hours alone — trading near $0.1568 at the time of writing.
But not everyone thinks panic-selling is the right move. On June 5, Alphractal founder and CEO Joao Wedson — an on-chain data specialist — posted on X a set of on-chain price levels to watch if the sell-off deepens. Wedson pointed to $0.1097 and $0.03478 as key thresholds, which he identified as Cardano’s Thermo Price and Delta Price, respectively.
What those metrics mean
- Thermo Price ($0.1097): Wedson describes this as a “price per coin” derived from the blockchain’s accumulated historical revenue (in USD) divided by current circulating supply. He frames it as an on-chain valuation metric akin to a historical cost of production or the cost of network security diluted across supply — a more stable, baseline level.
- Delta Price ($0.03478): This metric measures the numerical difference between the Realized Price (investors’ average cost basis) and the Thermo Price. Wedson says Delta Price helps connect holders’ cost bases with validators’ production or security costs and can flag deep-cycle bottoms and longer-term accumulation zones.
Why it matters
Wedson noted Cardano has only visited the Delta Price twice in its history and has never hit the Thermo Price — though he cautioned these metrics shift over time, especially the Delta Price. He stressed he’s not predicting the market will necessarily test those levels, but argues they’re important regions to monitor during this capitulation phase.
Practical guidance for investors
- Potential accumulation zone: Wedson flagged the $0.05–$0.10 range as a potentially “interesting” accumulation area for ADA if the market sees further downside.
- If downside is limited: Conversely, if ADA holds and doesn’t drop further, Wedson suggested buyers could wait a few months to accumulate after a higher-level retest, allowing for greater confidence.
Bottom line
Cardano has seen heavy losses amid this week’s market sell-off, but on-chain valuation tools like the Thermo and Delta Prices give analysts specific levels to watch for long-term accumulation or deep-cycle support. As always, these metrics are one input among many — and they evolve as on-chain economics change.
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