Sen. Elizabeth Warren has formally demanded answers from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), accusing the agency of favoring firms with ties to President Donald Trump and his family and questioning whether it can effectively police prediction markets and crypto amid what she calls “unprecedented presidential corruption.”
In a letter Monday to CFTC Chair Michael Selig, Warren cited a New York Times report that described the regulator as having been “steamrolled” by the industries it oversees. She warned that the stakes are growing: top prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket together were valued at roughly $60 billion in early 2026, and Bernstein estimates — cited by CNBC — project the broader industry could hit $1 trillion in trading volume by 2030. Warren argued the CFTC is increasingly unprepared to protect investors and market integrity as prediction markets expand and Congress moves to loosen crypto guardrails.
Key concerns Warren raised
- Staff and enforcement shrinkage: The CFTC’s workforce has reportedly been cut by about 25%, and enforcement actions fell from 58 in fiscal year 2024 to just 11 in the year since the Trump administration began, according to the reporting Warren cites.
- Allegations of preferential treatment: She points to episodes where the agency allegedly accommodated firms linked to Trump’s circle — including approving a Polymarket request after an investment from Donald Trump Jr.’s firm, fast-tracking a Gemini offshoot whose founders backed the Trump-affiliated American Bitcoin project, and sidelining staff who questioned ties between Crypto.com and Trump Media & Technology.
- Possible political pressure: Former commissioner Brian Quintenz — who was once nominated to lead the CFTC before that nomination was withdrawn — released text messages showing Tyler Winklevoss urging him to prioritize a Gemini complaint and offering to “raise this issue with the president himself.” Quintenz says he refused; his nomination was later withdrawn and Selig was nominated in his place. Warren also flagged Selig’s request that a judge vacate a $5 million penalty against Gemini; the Winklevoss twins each donated $1 million in Bitcoin to Trump’s reelection campaign.
Warren wrote that these developments “are concerning signs of a CFTC beholden to political pressures and interests of the wealthy insiders,” and warned that an impartial regulator is essential to trustworthy rulemaking.
Industry voices weigh in
- Nic Puckrin, macro analyst and Coin Bureau co-founder, told Decrypt the pattern creates the impression of a two-tier justice system. He noted the Department of Justice prosecuted a Google engineer and a U.S. soldier for insider trading on prediction markets while leaving larger trading profits from oil markets unaddressed.
- Markus Levin, XYO co-founder, argued to Decrypt that if the CFTC is to inherit broader crypto oversight under the proposed Clarity Act, it needs staff fluent in blockchain technology rather than only traditional derivatives expertise — otherwise rulemaking will be flawed regardless of headcount.
Why it matters now
Congress is advancing the Clarity Act, which would shift oversight of most of the crypto market to the CFTC. Warren says the agency is already ill-equipped for that role, particularly after reported staffing and enforcement declines.
What Warren requested
Warren gave Chair Selig a June 18 deadline to produce a range of documents and records, including:
- A complete record of CFTC staff separations since January 2025
- The administrative record behind no-action letters issued to Polymarket and Gemini
- All communications between prediction market firms and the agency related to the Clarity Act
This inquiry follows recent Warren-led probes into crypto-related bank charter approvals and a joint effort with Sen. Bernie Sanders to block crypto from 401(k) plans.
Implications
If Warren’s allegations prompt further investigations or corrective action, the timing could affect how — and how quickly — the CFTC assumes broader crypto jurisdiction. The episode also underscores broader industry anxieties about regulatory capture, political influence, and whether U.S. financial regulators have the expertise and independence needed to oversee rapidly evolving digital-asset and prediction-market businesses.
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