Cardano (ADA) remains under heavy pressure, trading near $0.16 on Wednesday as the token extends losses following last week’s sharp 30% plunge. Investor confidence appears to be waning and retail participation is thinning, but on-chain signals suggest the recent wave of selling from long-term holders may be running out of steam — a dynamic that can sometimes foreshadow a bottom.
On-chain activity points to possible capitulation among long-term holders. Data from Santiment shows multiple spikes in previously dormant ADA moving back into circulation in early June, with several transfers exceeding 20 billion ADA and a single outsized movement of 40.6 billion ADA on June 9 — the largest recorded during this sell-off. That burst of activity also interrupted the rising average age of ADA wallets, confirming that long-inactive addresses were reactivated to move or sell coins. While more selling can’t be ruled out, such dormancy spikes are often viewed as capitulation events that mark the exhaustion of a sell-side cycle.
Retail and derivatives metrics reinforce the bearish backdrop. CoinGlass data shows Cardano futures open interest has tumbled to $348.55 million — the lowest level since November 2024 and a sharp drop from $585.35 million on May 12. Falling OI typically indicates traders are closing leveraged positions and stepping back from risk, which reduces the odds of a swift rebound driven by speculative flows.
Technically, ADA’s near-term picture favors sellers. The market slipped below $0.16 after a short-lived bounce to $0.1745 on Monday. Momentum indicators corroborate the weakness: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits around 39, approaching oversold territory, while the MACD remains under the zero line. These readings leave room for occasional relief rallies but no clear sign of a sustained reversal yet.
Key price levels to watch: on the upside, reclaiming Monday’s high of $0.1745 would be the first step, with a break above the $0.20 psychological barrier — and ultimately the $0.2205–$0.2275 zone — required to materially weaken the bearish outlook. On the downside, a fall beneath Saturday’s low of $0.1486 could open the door to a more significant slide toward the long-term support area around $0.10.
In short, Cardano’s sell-off has drawn out dormant supply and shaken speculative interest, making the immediate outlook cautious. On-chain capitulation hints that selling pressure may be near its peak, but until traders return and key technical thresholds are reclaimed, downside risks remain the more likely path.
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