Ethereum is drifting toward price levels not seen since April last year as selling pressure bites, leaving the second-largest crypto trading around $1,606 — roughly 70% below its all-time high of $4,945. That comes after a steep 31% decline over the past month, and at least one indicator highlighted by market analyst Ali Martinez on X suggests the downtrend may have more room to run.
Martinez pointed to the Delta Price indicator, which he says has correctly flagged Ethereum’s last two market bottoms. Today that metric sits at $708. If ETH were to fall to that level before the bear cycle ends, it would imply an additional 56% drop from current prices and an approximate 85% decline from the all-time high.
What is Delta Price? According to Martinez, it measures the relationship between investor cost basis and miner production cost and has historically marked deep accumulation zones for Ethereum — levels where long-term buyers stepped in. Based on that track record, he argues a revisit of the $700 area remains possible before any sustained recovery takes hold.
Recent technical calls from Martinez have already played out. He had identified roughly $1,850 on the weekly chart as a critical support — losing it, he warned, would likely accelerate selling. ETH broke that level and then pushed below his $1,560 downside target over the weekend, trading as low as around $1,500. Looking further down, he previously described $1,070 as the lower boundary of a multi-year range and the next significant level should the current selloff deepen.
On the upside, Martinez outlined two conditions he believes would be needed to shift Ethereum back toward a bullish regime: reclaiming the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) near $2,500, followed by a decisive break above the 50-week SMA near $3,100. Neither condition is close to being met as the broader crypto market remains under pressure.
Bottom line: short-term weakness has pushed ETH into territory last seen a year ago, and while some technical indicators suggest deep accumulation zones could lie much lower, a clear bullish turnaround will likely require reclaiming long-term moving averages. Chart: TradingView.com. Featured image created with OpenArt.
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