The 2026 FIFA World Cup — kicking off Thursday across North America — could deliver a seismic boost to prediction markets and sports-betting platforms, according to Bernstein, with crypto exchanges and trading apps among the companies racing to capture the wave.
Why this World Cup matters for markets
This tournament’s expanded 48-team format means 104 matches — roughly 60% more “bettable inventory” than prior editions. Bernstein’s analysts estimate that extra slate could translate into more than $3 billion in incremental handle and as much as $10 billion in broader consumer volume uplift across sportsbooks and prediction platforms over the month-long event. For an industry that normally sees a mid-year lull, those are eye-popping numbers.
A watershed moment for prediction markets
Bernstein calls the World Cup a “potential watershed moment” for prediction markets, which have been gaining momentum via platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. The firm argues prediction markets represent an added monetization layer for sports engagement — “TikTok, not Napster” — rather than a threat to traditional books. That crossover appeal, Bernstein suggests, could help turn prediction markets into a massive mainstream channel: the analysts predict the space could grow into a trillion-dollar volume market by 2030 if adoption accelerates.
Signs of acceleration already
Bernstein points to early signs of inflection. DraftKings disclosed that May annualized consumer volume rose 24% month-over-month to $1.3 billion, and total volume traded climbed 34% to $3.1 billion, extending a steep three-month ramp. Kalshi and Polymarket, Bernstein notes, have scaled quickly in states such as California, Texas, Georgia, and Florida — and the World Cup offers a chance for other players to accelerate customer acquisition.
Crypto firms jump in
Crypto exchanges and trading platforms are leveraging the tournament to expand prediction-market offerings. Coinbase said it crossed $100 million in annualized prediction-market revenue within two months of launching the product in early 2026, and it is offering World Cup contracts through its partnership with Kalshi. Robinhood’s World Cup events contracts were developed with Rothera, an independent CFTC-licensed prediction markets exchange that Robinhood invested in via a joint partnership with Susquehanna International Group.
Market sentiment on the pitch
Prediction-platform sentiment is already shaping up: users on Myriad — the prediction-market platform run by Dastan, parent company of Decrypt — currently give Spain the highest chance to win the Cup at 18%, with France close behind at 17%.
What it means for crypto
For the crypto ecosystem, the World Cup represents more than a short-term traffic spike. Higher volumes could validate prediction markets as a high-frequency use case for tokenized markets, on-chain trading primitives, and interoperability between traditional and crypto-native market infrastructure. If Bernstein’s bullish projections hold, the event may accelerate both user adoption and product innovation across the space.
Editor’s note: This story was updated after publication to correct Robinhood’s relationship to Rothera.
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