Bitcoin mining margins are under serious pressure, and a new CoinShares report warns part of the global fleet is already unprofitable.
Key findings
- Q4 2025 was the toughest quarter for miners since the April 2024 halving, CoinShares says. Lower BTC prices and a near-record network hashrate pushed hashprice — revenue per PH/s/day — to five‑year lows.
- Among listed miners, the weighted average cash cost to produce one Bitcoin rose to roughly $79,995 in Q4 2025.
- Hashprice fell further to about $29 per PH/s/day in Q1 2026, a level that makes many rigs economically unviable and undermines incentives for a broad hardware refresh.
- Any miner running equipment older than an S19 XP at electricity rates of $0.06/kWh or higher is likely losing money when hashprice is near $30 per PH/s/day. CoinShares estimates that 15–20% of the global mining fleet falls into that vulnerable category.
Short-term market moves and network reaction
- Hashrate Index reported a modest rebound in weekly USD hashprice, up 4.9% to $33.65 per PH/s/day for the week to March 23 (from $32.08). Even so, roughly $33 per PH/s/day is at or below breakeven for many operators depending on machine model and power costs.
- The network has begun to adjust: Bitcoin’s difficulty was cut 7.76% on March 20 to 133.79 trillion, easing the work needed to mine blocks and offering temporary relief for miners who stayed online.
Outlook and industry implications
- CoinShares’ head of research James Butterfill cautioned: “If prices were to stay below US$80k for the remainder of the year, we forecast the hashprice to continue to fall.” He added that in that scenario the hashprice would “more likely flatline” as operators power down uneconomic rigs and overall hashrate declines.
- The report warns higher-cost miners may face further capitulation in H1 2026 unless BTC recovers. The sector appears to be consolidating toward operators with structural advantages: cheap power, newer, more efficient hardware, and the flexibility to pivot parts of their business into AI or data-center services.
Bottom line
The squeeze is clear: rising operating costs and high hashrate have pushed a meaningful slice of the fleet into loss territory. Miners with older hardware or unfavorable power contracts are under the most pressure, while larger operators with modern rigs and lower energy costs retain more runway — and potentially an incentive to diversify into non-mining infrastructure services.
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