Bitcoin price held near $68,780 Tuesday as U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded their biggest single-day inflow in over a month.
Fund flows and price action
- U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs added a combined $471 million on April 6, according to SoSoValue — the largest daily inflow since Feb. 25 and the sixth-largest day this year. That pace still trails January’s peak regime, when several days topped $700 million.
- The inflows arrived as bitcoin struggles to clear $70,000, with weak spot demand and redistribution by large holders constraining upside. ETFs have increasingly stepped in as the marginal buyer, helping to absorb supply and steady prices.
Macro backdrop
- Macro indicators offer little new direction: markets put a 98% probability on the Federal Reserve holding rates steady at its April meeting, per Polymarket, with scant expectations for near-term policy moves.
Changing market dynamics: ETFs and monetary policy
- Research from Binance suggests the character of bitcoin’s relationship with global monetary policy may be shifting alongside the rise of spot ETFs. Binance’s analysis shows bitcoin’s correlation with its Global Easing Breadth Index — a gauge tracking easing/tightening across 41 central banks — flipped sharply negative in 2024, the same year U.S. spot ETFs were approved.
- Historically, bitcoin tended to follow easing cycles with a lag. Since 2024 that relationship has inverted, with the inverse effect nearly three times stronger, implying bitcoin is now pricing in monetary conditions differently.
Who sets the marginal price?
- Binance argues the change reflects who sets marginal demand. Retail flows historically reacted to macro developments after they occurred. ETF-driven institutional flows, by contrast, are more forward-looking and position ahead of anticipated policy moves. “BTC may have evolved from a macro ‘lagging receiver’ to a ‘leading pricer,’” the report says.
- Continued ETF inflows are helping to soak up supply and anchor prices, which may explain persistent daily inflows even when spot demand appears muted.
Implication
- If Binance Research’s thesis holds, bitcoin could continue to act as a forward-looking asset — pricing in central bank pivots before traditional markets react, rather than trailing them.
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