Morgan Stanley — the $2 trillion asset manager — now says it doesn’t expect the Strait of Hormuz to reopen this month, a development that could ripple through markets beyond oil. Over the weekend, Morgan Stanley energy analyst Martijn Rats updated his view, assuming the effective closure will persist through the end of April, with only a gradual rebound in shipping flows after that.
Why it matters: the Strait of Hormuz is a chokepoint for global energy supplies, and the disruption has effectively blocked more than 20% of the world’s oil flows. That shock has helped send oil prices sharply higher, contributed to production shutdowns, and prompted the US government to warn that Middle East oil output could fall by as much as 9 million barrels per day in April.
Main market effects highlighted by Morgan Stanley include falling tech valuations — names like Apple, Nvidia and Microsoft have pulled back as energy costs spike — and a broader hit to the global energy sector. Corporates may face higher capital expenditure and weaker consumer spending as producers and buyers adjust to constrained supply and elevated prices.
What crypto watchers should keep an eye on:
- Risk appetite: Higher oil and energy-driven macro volatility can dampen risk-on flows into growth assets, including cryptocurrencies, and may prompt portfolio rebalancing away from speculative positions.
- Mining costs: Energy-price shocks can raise operational costs for energy-intensive miners, potentially pressuring margins or altering mining economics in some regions.
- Tokenized commodities and DeFi collateral: Volatility in traditional commodity markets tends to reverberate into tokenized assets and collateral valuations, increasing liquidation risk across leveraged positions.
Bottom line: Morgan Stanley’s cautious timeline for the Strait of Hormuz reopening underscores continued supply-side strain in oil markets through April. For crypto traders and industry participants, the knock-on effects on risk sentiment and energy costs are the key channels to monitor as the situation unfolds.
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