XRP sits tight at $1.34 as traders brace for a key Senate return that could settle the token’s regulatory fate.
What’s happening
- On April 10 XRP traded in a narrow band, roughly $1.33–$1.35, posting modest 24-hour gains of about 0.8–1.0% (FX Leaders). The price action looks driven more by a wait-and-see mood around upcoming legislation than by technical signals.
- Congress comes back from its Easter recess on April 13. The Senate Banking Committee has targeted a markup of the CLARITY Act in the second half of April, creating a fresh window for legislative movement.
Why it matters
- The CLARITY Act would explicitly classify XRP as a digital commodity under U.S. law, removing regulatory ambiguity that has constrained institutional participation. With clearer legal cover, banks and large asset managers could deploy capital at scale.
- Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick estimates that Senate Banking Committee advancement alone could unlock an additional $4–$8 billion in XRP ETF inflows.
- Seven U.S. spot XRP ETFs already collected about $1.44 billion after launching between September and December 2025—achieved without the CLARITY Act being law. Formal legislation could unlock far larger, permanent institutional flows.
Odds and timing
- Prediction markets (Polymarket) currently price the bill at roughly a 63–66% chance of becoming law in 2026.
- Lawmakers and analysts are warning about timing risks: Senator Bernie Moreno has cautioned that missing a May window could push the bill off this year’s calendar, and TD Cowen plus multiple legal experts warn a summer miss could make a post-August revival unlikely given midterm dynamics.
- Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has pushed his own expectation for passage from the end of April to the end of May.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged quick action in a Wall Street Journal op-ed, noting “Senate floor time is scarce, and now is the time to act.”
Market takeaway
Traders and institutional investors appear content to test a $1.34 floor until the Senate shows its hand; a positive legislative move could be a major catalyst for renewed inflows, while delay risks keeping XRP range-bound.
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