Bitcoin is showing renewed strength after months of consolidation, but fresh analysis from XWIN Research Japan warns that the recovery is uneven—and that matters for how far and how fast crypto can follow equities higher.
Market context: selective equity rally, not broad risk-on
- U.S. equities are at fresh highs: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have reclaimed all-time levels, creating a veneer of a risk-on market.
- Yet the rally is selective. Bitcoin remains roughly 40% below its peak, Ethereum about 52% off, gold is down 12% and silver 34%. Crypto has not been a leader in this rebound.
- XWIN argues this isn’t a blanket flood of liquidity into risky assets but a targeted repricing in equities, driven largely by receding geopolitical and energy fears—i.e., a compression of tail-risk premia rather than solved inflation or steep rate cuts.
Why that distinction matters
- Liquidity conditions, XWIN says, are still tight. Capital typically flows through markets in stages: oil/commodities first, then the dollar and rates, equities next, and finally later-cycle assets like Bitcoin. Right now equities are at the front of that queue and crypto is still waiting its turn. That means Bitcoin’s lag is more about timing than structural weakness.
On-chain and price structure: groundwork for a breakout?
- Beneath the price action, the on-chain picture is quietly improving: exchange reserves are declining and accumulation appears ongoing. XWIN describes this setup as a “pre-breakout” phase—conditions are being put in place, but the macro catalyst that pushes flows downstream hasn’t fully arrived.
- Price-wise, BTC has moved from a capitulation phase into a controlled recovery and is now testing a key resistance area around $75,000. After a high-volume selloff in early February that sent BTC into the low $60ks, the market built a base in a defended range roughly between $72,500 and $75,000.
- Recent action shows a breakout above the upper boundary of that range and price pressing the descending 100-day moving average (a dynamic resistance). The 50-day MA is turning up under price—short-term momentum is improving—while the 200-day MA remains well above, signaling the broader trend hasn’t fully flipped.
- Volume has normalized since the February spike, suggesting the current lift is driven more by measured accumulation than panic or forced flows.
The takeaway
- If Bitcoin can sustain acceptance above ~$75,000, the structure would shift bullish and the next leg higher would be more likely. If it fails to hold that zone, BTC may slip back into consolidation as it waits for further downstream capital flows.
- In short: the technical and on-chain groundwork is building, but macro liquidity and capital flow sequencing will likely determine when crypto joins the equity-led rebound.
Image credits: featured image from ChatGPT; chart from TradingView.com.
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