Bitcoin is increasingly being framed as the new safe-haven—and Bitwise’s CIO Matt Hougan is among the loudest proponents.
Since the outbreak of the US‑Iran conflict, markets have shown an unusual divergence: Bitcoin has rallied roughly 12% while gold has slid about 10% and the S&P 500 is down ~1%. Anecdotally, Hougan and others note heightened demand for BTC in places like Iran as investors seek refuge from geopolitical and economic turbulence.
Why Bitwise believes Bitcoin can eclipse gold
Hougan argues Bitcoin’s total addressable market (TAM) already exceeds gold’s roughly $34 trillion market. Today, he says, Bitcoin represents under 4% of the combined store‑of‑value universe; if its share rises to 17%, that would imply roughly a $1 million BTC price. Bitwise’s more explicit forecast projects a $1.3 million Bitcoin by 2035, assuming BTC captures about 25% of the store‑of‑value market.
Three drivers behind the bullish thesis
- Soaring government debt and deficits that fuel worries about fiat debasement.
- A regulatory shift in major markets from hostile to increasingly pro‑crypto rules.
- Institutional adoption enabled by products such as spot Bitcoin ETFs, which open large pools of capital to the asset class.
A dual role: store of value and medium for offshore wealth
Hougan also highlights Bitcoin’s potential to take on a dual role—both a store of value like gold and a transactional or reserve asset in some contexts. He suggests BTC could be used for offshore wealth preservation tied to real estate or FX reserves and could gain traction in certain emerging markets. Those use cases, he says, would lift its share of global stores of value and justify much higher price targets.
Caveats and tone
Hougan calls the $1.3M by 2035 a conservative estimate, noting that if Bitcoin begins to function simultaneously as a safe haven and an alternative currency, targets could be revised upward. As always, this outlook depends on continued regulatory clarity, institutional flows, and how investors treat BTC relative to traditional assets like gold.
Bottom line
Bitwise’s thesis is straightforward: structural macro pressures, regulatory evolution, and institutional access could push Bitcoin from a niche asset into a major competitor to gold for global store‑of‑value allocations—potentially supporting seven‑figure price scenarios over the next decade-plus. Whether markets follow remains the critical unknown.
Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news
