Indonesia has moved to block access to crypto-based prediction market Polymarket after the platform listed a contract betting on whether President Prabowo Subianto would leave office before his term ends.
The Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs (Komdigi) said Polymarket was operating “as online gambling under the cover of a prediction market,” and announced the block as part of efforts to prevent online betting. Ministry official Alexander Sabar told reporters, “The government will not allow any form of online gambling in Indonesia.” Komdigi also said it is reviewing social media accounts tied to the platform for possible additional restrictions, and said the action was intended to protect the public—especially young internet users.
The disputed contract, launched May 20, 2026, asked whether Prabowo would cease to be president by several dates: May 31, June 30, and Dec. 31, 2026. Polymarket’s data showed roughly $46,000 in trading volume on the market, with traders pricing the odds at about 1% for a Prabowo exit by May 31, 2% by June 30, and roughly 15% by Dec. 31, 2026. Under Polymarket’s own rules the contract would resolve “Yes” if Prabowo stopped serving within the stated period—including by resignation, removal, detention, or any condition that prevented him from performing presidential duties.
Komdigi framed the move as broader than the single contract: the ministry described Polymarket as a platform that enables users to wager money on uncertain events, which it said conflicts with Indonesian law prohibiting online gambling.
Indonesia’s action follows a wave of government responses worldwide treating crypto prediction markets as gambling rather than financial forecasting. India recently ordered ISPs and VPN providers to restrict access to Polymarket and similar services, classifying crypto-based prediction markets as prohibited online money-gaming under its 2025 gaming law and flagging risks around stablecoin payments, capital outflows and offshore betting. Regulators in Argentina, Colombia and Romania have also restricted Polymarket after deeming it unauthorized gambling.
The dispute is part of a wider regulatory tug-of-war over event-based trading. In the United States, prediction-market firm Kalshi has helped launch Americans for Fair Markets, an advocacy group pressing for federal rules and consumer protections for event-contract platforms. At the same time, U.S. lawmakers are probing Kalshi and Polymarket on matters such as user verification, geographic limits and suspicious-trading controls amid concerns that people with non-public information could profit from event contracts. A New York Times report has also highlighted internal tensions at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, noting that officials who questioned prediction-market firms were suspended, investigated or pushed out—fueling debate over whether these markets should be regulated as financial markets or treated as local gambling.
As regulators tighten scrutiny in multiple jurisdictions, crypto-native prediction markets face mounting legal and operational hurdles—raising questions about their future role in political forecasting, financial innovation and cross-border crypto activity.
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