Indonesia has moved to block access to the prediction market Polymarket after a viral wager betting on an early end to President Prabowo Subianto’s term drew widespread attention online.
The Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs announced the ban this week, saying it aims to protect the public — especially younger internet users — from what it characterizes as online gambling. Director General of Digital Space Supervision Alexander Sabar said platforms that allow real-money bets on event outcomes are gambling, even when they present themselves as "prediction markets" or use blockchain and crypto tokens. “The government will not tolerate any form of online gambling in Indonesia,” he said, adding that such activities violate local laws and can expose users to financial losses.
Authorities said they will also block other prediction-market services suspected of facilitating online wagering and are tracing social media accounts that promote Polymarket to ensure the ban is enforced across platforms. The ministry urged Indonesians not to participate in crypto-based betting or similar speculative activities.
Indonesia’s move echoes a wave of international enforcement. Governments around the world have taken steps ranging from restrictions to outright bans on Polymarket and comparable services, citing concerns that these platforms resemble unregulated gambling or fall outside local financial rules. Over the past two years, a number of jurisdictions have acted against prediction markets: Taiwan, Thailand, China and India have moved to restrict them, while other countries have implemented full blocks or court-ordered access bans.
Notable recent actions include:
- Argentina: A Buenos Aires court ordered internet service providers, Google and Apple to block Polymarket after the platform hosted a market tied to inflation data. Authorities argued it operated as an unlicensed gambling site.
- Brazil: The central bank announced a ban in March on prediction and betting platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, citing noncompliance with derivatives rules and concerns about investor protections and market integrity.
- United States: Prediction markets face growing political and regulatory scrutiny. Representative James Comer has launched a formal probe into Polymarket and Kalshi after reports of suspicious trades connected to classified U.S. military operations and major geopolitical events. Comer has asked both companies for details on insider-trade detection, identity verification, and how they block users from restricted jurisdictions. Separately, the platforms recently failed to stop gambling-related enforcement actions in Nevada and Washington.
For crypto and prediction-market operators, the Indonesian ban is another reminder that regulatory risk is high and uneven across borders. Regulators are increasingly treating real-money event markets as gambling or as financial instruments subject to local rules — regardless of whether they run on blockchains — and they’re moving to curtail access, pursue enforcement, and warn the public about potential harm.
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