Galaxy Digital has trimmed its odds that the CLARITY Act will become law in 2026, warning the Senate’s shrinking legislative calendar could derail the crypto market-structure bill.
Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, said the firm’s probability estimate has fallen from 75% in late May—immediately after the Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill—to 60% today. The downgrade reflects a tighter timeline after recent Senate setbacks, including the failed FISA reauthorization vote, which Thorn says worsened the calendar for moving major legislation.
Why the risk is rising
- Timing: Thorn says Senate leaders must secure floor time and complete debate, the amendment process, and reconcile competing committee texts before lawmakers leave for an August recess (effectively closing the window in late July). He believes Majority Leader John Thune would need to schedule the bill for July floor consideration; anything later, Thorn argues, makes the procedural steps infeasible before recess.
- Supermajority hurdle: To avoid protracted debate, the CLARITY Act will likely need at least 60 votes, so negotiators must resolve outstanding disputes while preserving bipartisan support.
- Policy sticking points: Ethics and illicit-finance provisions remain unresolved and could sway cautious senators’ votes.
Where other players stand
- Senator Cynthia Lummis, a leading sponsor, has continued to press for a floor vote, saying the bill “cleared committee” and “the floor is next,” and that lawmakers are actively working through the remaining ethics and illicit-finance concerns.
- Market watchers are more guarded: JPMorgan has put the chance of passage this year at under 50%, while Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said some insiders privately estimate the odds as low as 5%–30%.
Background and next steps
The CLARITY Act—one of the industry’s top policy priorities after a 15–9 bipartisan committee vote—still needs Senate floor debate, amendments, and agreement on divergent committee texts. If leaders commit to a July vote and lawmakers resolve the remaining issues, Galaxy said it would raise its odds again. Otherwise, the bill’s path grows precarious as midterm-election activity takes over the congressional calendar and any revised measure would have to return to the House before Congress adjourns.
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