Coinbase is shaping up as one of the biggest winners from the 2026 FIFA World Cup as the tournament helps turbocharge a booming prediction market, according to a Bernstein research note.
Why the World Cup matters
- Bernstein estimates the expanded 2026 World Cup could drive a $5 billion to $10 billion surge in prediction market activity tied to the tournament, and more than $3 billion in additional sports-betting handle as fans engage across 104 matches. FIFA expects roughly 6 billion people to follow the event, up from about 5 billion in 2022.
- The tournament also arrives during a typically quiet stretch for online sports betting, creating an opening for prediction-market platforms to win new users and sustained trading activity rather than one-off spikes.
How Coinbase is positioned
- Bernstein names Coinbase as a primary beneficiary. The exchange launched its prediction markets product only months ago but had already exceeded $100 million in annualized revenue by March.
- Earlier this year Coinbase partnered with Kalshi to offer event-based contracts to users in all 50 U.S. states, spanning sports, politics, culture and other real-world outcomes—giving it broad domestic reach ahead of the World Cup.
Broader product push: derivatives and AI
- Coinbase has also been expanding derivatives offerings. On June 11 the firm won approval to give U.S. users access to global crypto perpetual futures—making it, CEO Brian Armstrong said, the first U.S. platform to link customers to global crypto perpetual liquidity. Coinbase plans to route that liquidity through Deribit, the derivatives exchange it acquired for $2.9 billion earlier this year.
- The exchange is pushing automation too. Coinbase for Agents lets authorized AI models (including ChatGPT and Claude) execute financial tasks in user accounts—monitoring markets, rebalancing, managing positions and placing trades. The initial rollout is focused on crypto, with stock and prediction-market integration promised later.
Market context and competition
- Independent data shows sports are already the dominant vertical in prediction markets. A recent report from Bitget Wallet and Polymarket found monthly prediction-market volume near $26 billion, with retail traders making up more than 80% of participants. Sports accounted for over 39% of total prediction-market volume in March, often the largest category on platforms.
- Competition is heating up: Bernstein expects Robinhood to capture its share with Rothera, a Commodity Futures Trading Commission–licensed prediction market exchange and clearinghouse, forecasting roughly $586 million in prediction-market revenue for Robinhood in 2026.
Regulatory tailwinds
- Regulatory signals may be shifting in favor of event contracts. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission recently released draft rules indicating that sports-event contracts are generally not contrary to the public interest—an important clarification given federal law has long treated such contracts as gaming products.
Bottom line
Coinbase’s recent product expansions—prediction markets, derivatives connectivity through Deribit, and AI-enabled trading—have positioned it to capture a meaningful slice of the expected World Cup-driven lift in event-driven trading. With sports already the largest category in prediction markets and regulatory headwinds easing, the stage is set for major platforms to fight for volume and users as the 2026 tournament approaches.
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