Bitcoin finds itself at a crossroads: traders are split between two familiar narratives — a full capitulation or the slow start of a durable market bottom. In a Feb. 15 video explainer, CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn argues the on-chain and market data are increasingly pointing toward the latter — but with a big caveat: any bottom is likely to be a grind, not a quick snapback.
Why the cautious optimism?
- ETF-driven selling pressure: New spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen an $8.2 billion drawdown from peak holdings — the largest on record, Maartunn says — which creates persistent structural sell pressure. He notes the current market price is roughly 17% below the average buy-in price for ETF holders, meaning a significant share of that cohort is underwater and may be inclined to cut exposure.
- A major derivatives reset: Open interest has been slashed by more than half, dropping from $45.5 billion to $21.7 billion, including a 27% decline in the last week alone. That’s a broad deleveraging event — painful for overleveraged traders in the short term but historically the kind of “washout” that lets markets rebuild healthier foundations.
- Short-term holder stress: The short-term holder MVRV (market-value-to-realized-value) ratio sits at about 0.72, which implies the average short-term holder is roughly 28% down. Maartunn points out this is the lowest reading since the July 2022 bottom and typically lines up with periods of maximum financial pain — a condition that has often preceded recovery windows.
- Technical retest of a meaningful support cluster: Bitcoin is revisiting a zone where the previous cycle’s all-time high meets the upper boundary of an older trading range — an area that has mattered in past cycle transitions and can act as a foundation for a multi-month bottoming process.
Timing and temperament
Maartunn also looks at cycle-duration analogs, suggesting a broad window for a potential cycle turn between June and December 2026, with prior cycles clustering more tightly between September and November. Importantly, he stresses that real market bottoms rarely happen in a single day. Instead, they’re often characterized by prolonged apathy — muted social engagement, quiet timelines, and general disinterest — which historically marks points of maximum opportunity.
The caveat
None of this guarantees an immediate rebound. ETF outflows, ongoing flow dynamics, and sentiment shifts can arrive in stages. The current data may be tilting toward early bottom-formation signals, but volatility and additional stress tests are likely as the market digests deleveraging and structural selling.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading around $68,710.
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