Can Hyperliquid survive rising competition? New unlock plan eases near-term supply pressure
Hyperliquid has quietly softened the blow from a large token unlock that was due at the end of December — a move that could help the project as rivals heat up and trading activity cools.
What changed
- A planned one-off release — roughly 9.9 million HYPE (about $259 million) that was scheduled to hit the market on Dec. 29 — has been replaced by a monthly cadence. Unlocks will now occur on the 6th of each month, spreading out supply pressure.
- The team’s monthly allocation was cut from 1.7 million HYPE to 1.2 million HYPE, a roughly 30% reduction in expected immediate sell-side supply.
Why the change matters
By smoothing and trimming team unlocks, Hyperliquid reduces short-term selling pressure that can weigh on price. But the decision also appears tied to the protocol’s revenue trajectory: several analysts and on-chain observers have linked the update to weakening fee income and lower buyback capacity.
Revenue and buybacks have fallen
- DEX and L1 revenues have been trending down since the Oct. 10 market crash and weakened further after monthly unlocks began in November.
- Monthly revenue dropped from $105 million in November to $73 million in December — a roughly 30% month-on-month decline.
- Because most revenue is channeled into token buybacks and burns, that decline has pushed daily buybacks down sharply — from nearly $3 million in November to under $500k more recently — weighing on investor sentiment and price action. (Sources: on-chain trackers, analyst notes)
Analyst takes and competitive pressure
- Steven of Yunt Capital suggested the revised unlocks may be calibrated to actual revenue or buyback activity, asking whether “unlocks could be proportional to how much supply the AF buys?”
- Analyst Finch points to a combination of a broader market lull in Q4 and intensified competition from new entrants such as Lighter and Aster. Lighter, in particular, has drawn traders via farming and airdrop incentives; its Season 3 farming announcement could keep liquidity and users diverted away from Hyperliquid.
- On-chain market-share data shows a steep decline for Hyperliquid’s DEX: from roughly 75% in May to about 14% in December — underscoring how much competitive dynamics have shifted. (Source: Dune)
Price picture
Despite the headwinds, HYPE has staged a steady recovery since mid-December and is trading inside an ascending channel. Technical observers note that clearing the short-term resistance around $27 could pave the way toward $30–$31 in the next leg up. (Source: TradingView)
The bottom line
Hyperliquid’s revised unlock schedule and lower team allocation reduce immediate supply pressure and could steady markets in the short term. But weakening revenue, shrinking buybacks and aggressive competition from airdrop- and farm-driven rivals mean the platform needs renewed traction to reclaim lost share. Watch revenues, buyback pace, and user retention closely — they’ll likely determine whether HYPE’s recovery is sustainable.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Cryptocurrency trading carries high risk — always do your own research before making financial decisions. Sources: X, ASXN, Dune, TradingView.
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