XRP holders are deep in the red as the post-2025 bull run unwind continues, and on-chain data plus technical calls suggest more pain could be ahead.
What the on-chain numbers show
- Santiment reports that wallets active on the XRP Ledger over the past year are losing, on average, 41% — the lowest Mean Value to Realized Value (MVRV) for XRP since the FTX crash in November 2022. (MVRV compares current market value to the value when coins were last moved and is used to gauge holder profitability.)
- Glassnode finds only 43.4% of XRP supply is currently in profit with price around $1.33 — the smallest share since July 2024. The firm previously noted that a big portion of supply was already underwater even when XRP traded near $2.15, a sign the market was “top-heavy and structurally fragile,” dominated by late entrants.
Why some analysts see buying opportunity — and others see further downside
Santiment points out that large, negative average returns can reduce risk for buyers because many counterparties are already heavily underwater — essentially “blood in the streets” for competing traders. In other words, buying pressure could be easier to find when a majority of holders are at a loss.
But technical analyst CasiTrades warns the relief rally may be over. She says the bounce following the U.S.–Iran ceasefire pushed XRP into a clean 0.618 Fibonacci retracement (a common spot for temporary reversals), completing what she calls a wave-2 relief rally. The larger Elliott-wave structure, she argues, remains intact and a wave-3 down could be coming fast — targeting roughly $1.09. Earlier, she flagged a possible move to $1.08 (the 0.786 macro support), followed by a bounce and then a final leg lower toward $0.87 (the 0.854 macro support) as the fifth wave of the decline.
Price snapshot
- XRP trades around $1.33 at the time of writing, down about 3% in 24 hours (CoinMarketCap).
Bottom line
On-chain metrics show many XRP holders are currently deep underwater, which can both lower the bar for opportunistic buying and signal structural fragility. Technical analysis suggests a rally could be short-lived, with some analysts forecasting additional declines toward $1.09–$0.87 if bearish wave counts play out. Always consider multiple on-chain and macro signals before drawing conclusions — and this is not investment advice.
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