Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan says the recent surge in Bitcoin amid the US‑Iran war is rooted in investor bets on the crypto’s two headline use cases — and those bets are pushing BTC above $75,000.
In his weekly Bitwise memo, Hougan notes Bitcoin has climbed more than 12% since the conflict began, materially outpacing both the stock market and gold. He argues that investors are effectively choosing one of two narratives when they pile into BTC: Bitcoin as “digital gold” and Bitcoin as a functioning international currency.
Digital gold: store‑of‑value demand
Hougan says the easier-to‑see thesis is Bitcoin’s role as a store of value — a digital alternative to physical gold. If investors treat BTC like “digital gold,” it competes for a slice of the roughly $38 trillion global store‑of‑value market. Bitwise’s CIO describes that bet as “very attractive,” and highlights a theoretical price outcome: if Bitcoin captured 17% of that market, it could reach $1 million.
Currency thesis: an out‑of‑the‑money call option
The second narrative views Bitcoin as a potential international currency. Hougan frames this as an “out‑of‑the‑money call option” — low probability today but with a massive payoff if BTC sees widespread use in cross‑border settlement. He says recent developments have increased that probability: examples include reports of Iran accepting Bitcoin for toll payments at the Strait of Hormuz, which, in Hougan’s view, elevates BTC’s status as a usable currency.
Geopolitics and the world monetary order
According to Hougan, the US‑Iran war has made the global monetary order more volatile, and paradoxically this instability boosts the odds that apolitical, decentralized assets like Bitcoin will gain traction. As geopolitical tensions push nations and market participants to seek non‑state denominated payment methods, the incentive to hold BTC rises — helping explain the recent price strength.
Market snapshot
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades around $75,100, up on the day, per CoinMarketCap. Bitwise’s analysis suggests the combination of safe‑haven flows and the prospect of broader currency use is underpinning the rally.
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