Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, says Bitcoin is sitting at a historically important threshold — the cryptocurrency’s estimated “Production Cost.”
Edwards posted on X that Bitcoin has returned to its Production Cost, an indicator that estimates the global average USD cost to produce one BTC per day. In proof-of-work networks like Bitcoin, miners run vast arrays of machines to compete for block rewards. While initial hardware outlays are large, the recurring expense that most directly determines miner profitability is electricity — powering and cooling those rigs is the main operating cost.
Edwards’ chart places the current Production Cost at roughly $62,650, which is very close to Bitcoin’s spot price. That suggests miners are essentially breaking even right now. He also points out a historically significant zone: the best long-term buying opportunities have tended to occur between the Production Cost and what he calls the “Electrical Cost” — the pure electricity bill for miners — currently near $50,000. That electrical-cost level has acted like a cycle low boundary in prior markets.
Miners are already reacting to pressure. CoinWarz data shows Bitcoin’s network hashrate has slipped to about 837 EH/s, down from frequent touches near 1,000 EH/s in May — a drop of roughly 19%. That decline indicates some mining capacity may have been turned off or idled as operations face thinner margins.
Market price: at the time of writing Bitcoin trades around $62,400, down about 9.5% over the past week. With price hovering near miner break-even levels, the coming weeks could determine whether miners endure the squeeze, further reduce hashrate, or trigger selling that tests the historical electrical-cost support around $50K — a range Edwards highlights as one of the more attractive long-term value zones.
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