Bitcoin’s rally remains on ice after six months in a bear phase, with the flagship crypto sitting roughly 53% below its cycle high. Prominent analyst Burak Kesmeci says the current price action and on‑chain cost basis data paint a picture of heavy overhead resistance — and that Bitcoin must clear several clustered levels before a genuine trend reversal can be confirmed.
Key context
- Cycle peak / all‑time high: $126,000
- Local low in this cycle: $60,000
- Current drawdown from ATH: ~53% (within a common correction range of 40%–70%, though past bear markets reached deeper drawdowns of 84% in 2017–18 and 77% in 2021–22)
- Timeframe: bear phase has persisted for six months
On‑chain resistance and support
Kesmeci’s March 27 QuickTake leans heavily on recent on‑chain cost basis mappings to explain why upside is constrained:
Major overhead resistance zones (material selling pressure expected)
- New whales (coins aged
