The crypto honeymoon has stalled — at least for now. Trading activity cooled sharply in early 2026, and Wall Street analysts are racing to reset forecasts ahead of earnings season as data points to a meaningful pullback in volumes and revenue.
What analysts are seeing
- Barclays and Oppenheimer — among others — are converging on a similar view: trading has weakened enough that prior, more optimistic projections need to be revised down.
- Barclays took the most forceful step, downgrading Coinbase (COIN) and warning that “global crypto trading activity has declined to a level not seen since the end of 2023.” It added that “absent a resurgence in near-term crypto trading activity, we see profitability under pressure at Coinbase.”
The data behind the worry
- Barclays flagged that Coinbase’s March trading volume was “the lowest volume month since September 2024,” with April showing “no signs of improvement.” It estimates Q1 volumes fell roughly 30% from the prior quarter.
- Because exchanges earn most of their revenue from transaction fees, a broad retrenchment in trading quickly trims top-line and operating profit. Barclays now models Coinbase’s adjusted EBITDA about 24% below Street consensus, driven by weaker spot trading and reduced retail activity.
- The macro picture didn’t help: major crypto prices also slid in Q1, with bitcoin down roughly 22% and ether falling about 29% quarter-over-quarter.
How other firms are reacting
- Oppenheimer also cut estimates for Coinbase, citing softer crypto prices and lighter trading in Q1, and noted that many Wall Street models still hadn’t fully baked in the fall in volumes. Oppenheimer trimmed its Coinbase volume estimate for the quarter to $211 billion from $244 billion and now forecasts total revenue of $1.48 billion — below prior estimates and consensus.
- The pullback isn’t limited to Coinbase. Circle (CRCL) continues to grow the USDC stablecoin network — Oppenheimer says stablecoin market cap rose about 1% and USDC transfer volume rose roughly 12% quarter-over-quarter — but the core trading business across platforms is slowing.
- Bullish (BLSH) saw a surge in on-platform activity during February’s volatility, yet spot volumes still missed expectations. As a result, Rosenblatt downgraded BLSH to neutral, while Compass Point moved Circle to sell.
Diversification plans face an uphill climb
- Exchanges are pushing to broaden revenue beyond spot fees — into derivatives, tokenized assets and new markets — with Coinbase pitching itself as an “everything exchange.” Barclays, however, is skeptical that those new lines will meaningfully or quickly replace lost spot-trading income, saying there’s “little ‘right to win’” in some of the new asset classes.
- Stablecoins, often viewed as a steadier revenue pillar, also face headwinds. Barclays pointed to regulatory debate in Washington and flagged uncertainty around the status of stablecoin rewards. Oppenheimer noted a possible silver lining — increased prediction-market activity could support USDC growth — but such trends remain secondary to the core trading slowdown.
Why analysts are moving now
With earnings season imminent, firms are revising models preemptively to avoid being surprised by weaker results. Key near-term dates: Bullish reports on April 23 and Coinbase is due to report on May 7; Circle has not announced a specific date.
Bottom line
The industry-wide message from analysts is clear: early-2026 trading conditions have cooled enough to pressure revenues and profits, and while exchanges are pursuing diversification, any offset will likely take time. All eyes are now on upcoming earnings reports to see whether the reset in analyst expectations is warranted — or if a return of volatility will reverse the trend.
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