Cardano (ADA) is showing fresh life after a broader crypto market bounce on Thursday, pushing back above the $0.25 mark and drawing renewed attention from traders and analysts. Technical structure and on-chain signals are beginning to line up, prompting speculation that a larger rally may be brewing.
Bullish technical signal from a veteran trader
Market analyst Ali Martinez — active on X — has laid out a bullish case for ADA, arguing that the altcoin could be poised to end its recent sideways phase and start a new uptrend. Martinez points to a flip in the SuperTrend indicator on the daily chart: the tool that turned bearish on September 25, 2025 (coinciding with the start of a roughly 73% drawdown) has now switched back to a buy signal. Martinez interprets this change as evidence of local exhaustion and the potential start of a trend reversal.
Price targets and key risk level
Based on that setup, Martinez expects an initial push toward the $0.33 resistance, with a secondary target near $0.42 if momentum holds. The $0.25 level is now a critical support — as long as ADA stays above it the bullish thesis remains intact; a decisive break below would likely delay, rather than permanently invalidate, the upside case.
On-chain accumulation supports the narrative
On-chain data from Santiment adds fuel to the bullish story. Addresses holding at least 1 million ADA have been steadily accumulating since December 2023. Those large-holding wallets now hold roughly 25.09 billion ADA, about 67.47% of the circulating supply. That accumulation comes despite a painful stretch in which ADA’s market cap dropped about 71% over nine months — suggesting that large holders have been buying the dip.
What this means
Technicals (a SuperTrend flip on the daily chart), concentrated buying by large addresses, and a return of positive price action together make a stronger case for a sustained recovery than recent months showed. Still, risk remains: the $0.25 support is pivotal, and broader market conditions will also shape ADA’s path. If accumulation by whales continues and price momentum holds, ADA could see a steady climb toward the $0.33–$0.42 area; if not, gains may stall or roll back.
Bottom line: Cardano’s short-term outlook has brightened, but traders should watch the $0.25 support and overall market context before assuming a full-blown bull run.
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