On-chain data suggests demand for Bitcoin has collapsed sharply over the past month — falling at a rate not seen since the fallout from the Terra/LUNA implosion.
CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, highlighted the shift in an X post, pointing to a 30-day measure that aggregates Bitcoin flows into both spot and futures markets. The chart he shared shows how the 30-day change in total demand has swung through cycles over the past few years.
What the data shows
- During April and early May, total demand rose alongside Bitcoin’s price, but the gains were driven largely by derivatives activity. Spot market demand actually contracted during that rally.
- Historically, Bitcoin bull runs have tended to be more durable when demand rises in both spot and futures markets. Moreno’s chart shows that the stronger rallies in 2024 and 2025 featured that “both green” setup.
- The recent recovery, by contrast, was fuelled mainly by speculative derivatives flows — a one-sided move that quickly reversed.
Where things stand now
- The 30-day change in total demand has plunged to -501,000 BTC, the lowest reading since May 2022. Moreno summarized the situation by saying, “Bitcoin demand is contracting at a pace comparable to the post-Terra/LUNA collapse period.”
- For context, the post-Terra/LUNA contraction peaked at -559,000 BTC. While the current metric hasn’t quite reached that level, continued outflows could push it toward similar territory.
Why the comparison matters
The Terra/LUNA episode in 2022 triggered a sector-wide crisis after the UST stablecoin lost its dollar peg and the Terra ecosystem collapsed, leading to sharp liquidations and a broad market sell-off. A demand contraction of the magnitude currently unfolding raises the risk of extended downside pressure if flows don’t stabilize.
Price impact
Following the reversal, Bitcoin has fallen to around $63,200 — its weakest level since February.
Bottom line
On-chain flows are signaling a broad pullback in both speculative and spot demand after a short-lived, derivatives-driven rally. Traders and investors should watch whether spot buying returns or whether outflows continue to mirror the kinds of stress seen in earlier market collapses.
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