Glassnode: this Ethereum cycle never hit the same profitability highs as prior bull runs
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode says Ethereum’s latest market cycle has produced markedly weaker unrealized profits compared with past bull runs. In a recent post on X, the firm highlighted the share of ETH supply that currently sits with gains greater than 300% (3x profit) — a simple but telling measure of how many coins are deeply “in the money.”
Key takeaways
- The proportion of ETH supply with >300% gains has dropped to just about 11%.
- According to Glassnode’s chart, the only time this metric was lower was in February 2017; the 2019 and 2022 bear markets never fell this far.
- In prior cycles the 3x-profit supply routinely cleared 50% during bull phases; this cycle never even broke 30%.
- “ETH’s profitability profile has fundamentally compressed relative to prior cycles,” Glassnode wrote.
Why it matters
A smaller share of coins sitting on large unrealized gains suggests a shallower, less broadly distributed rally: fewer long-term holders are sitting on massive profits, and more supply remains either at modest gains or at losses. Bear market pressure explains part of the decline, but the historical comparison shows the compression is unusually pronounced — implying this cycle’s upside was both narrower and less mature than previous runs.
Short-term buyers also taking pain
Santiment, another on-chain analytics firm, added context by sharing 30-day MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) data — a common indicator of recent-holder profitability. The 30-day MVRV, which measures profit/loss status for buyers from the past month, plunged during the market crash and has only partly recovered:
- BTC 30-day MVRV: about -10%
- ETH 30-day MVRV: about -12%
Santiment notes that when short-term traders are sitting on sizable losses across networks that normally hover around zero, selling pressure can exhaust as weak hands capitulate and long-term investors step back in to accumulate. In other words, these negative MVRV readings can mark a period where forced selling wanes and accumulation opportunities appear for patient players.
Price context
Ethereum briefly dipped toward $1,500 over the weekend but has since bounced; at the time of the reports it was trading near $1,680.
Bottom line
Both the compressed long-term profitability profile (Glassnode) and the significant short-term losses for recent buyers (Santiment) paint a consistent picture: this cycle’s rally left fewer holders massively profitable and left recent buyers nursing meaningful losses. That dynamic changes how rallies and capitulations may play out compared with prior cycles.
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