XRP slipped on Thursday, trading around $1.10 as the token’s attempt to shake off a downtrend that began in mid‑May faltered. Institutional appetite for XRP-linked investment vehicles is firming, but retail traders remain cautious amid renewed geopolitical volatility that has tightened risk appetite across markets.
Macro backdrop: US‑Iran tensions keep pressure on risk assets
Geopolitical uncertainty is a key headwind. Tensions between the United States and Iran have escalated recently — including comments from US President Donald Trump about stalled peace talks, follow‑up US strikes described as defensive, and retaliatory attacks by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on US facilities in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan. That environment is contributing to short‑term market volatility and a more conservative stance from many investors.
Flows and futures: institutions buying, speculators stepping back
Despite the choppy macro picture, institutional flows into XRP products have been notable. CoinGlass data show XRP spot ETFs drew almost $7.44 million on Tuesday and about $1.2 million on Wednesday. At the same time, XRP futures Open Interest stood near $2.43 billion on Thursday — and the recent decline in OI typically points to reduced speculative activity and weaker conviction among short‑term traders.
Technical snapshot: recovery attempt faces stiff resistance
Technically, the picture remains skewed to the downside. XRP is trading below several major moving averages, keeping the broader downtrend intact. Momentum indicators show selling pressure easing but not reversing: the RSI sits around 44 (weak demand, just above oversold) and the MACD histogram remains negative.
Key price levels to watch:
- Immediate resistance: a break above $1.26 would be an early sign of strengthening bullish momentum.
- Major upside targets: 50‑day EMA near $1.30, then $1.40 and $1.61.
- Downside risk: $1.05 is the next support; a break below $1.00 could open the way toward $0.95 and lower demand zones.
Bottom line
XRP’s latest bounce is being underpinned by steady ETF inflows and growing institutional interest, but the recovery looks tentative. Falling futures activity, ongoing geopolitical risk and a bearish technical structure mean momentum remains fragile — traders will be watching whether institutional demand can translate into sustained upside or if macro pressures push prices lower again.
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