Morgan Stanley’s head of digital asset strategy, Amy Oldenberg, told Coin Stories that Bitcoin hitting $1 million “is possible” — but only as the endgame of a long adoption cycle or following a major upheaval in traditional markets.
Oldenberg stopped short of setting a price target, but framed seven-figure Bitcoin as plausible over time. “Of everything I’ve seen in my life I will believe anything that it’s possible,” she said, adding a caution: “Anything that extreme needs to happen over time…if something happens that’s that extreme…there was some other extreme event that happened.”
Rather than predicting a sudden J-curve explosion, Oldenberg describes the next phase of institutional adoption as a steady buildout: more product access, adviser education, custody infrastructure and rising client demand. She expects Bitcoin to “grind higher” through the rest of the decade rather than skyrocket overnight — continued, incremental entry by institutions and advisors, not a single vertical repricing.
That gradual view underpins Morgan Stanley’s cautious positioning. The firm’s model portfolio guidance currently recommends Bitcoin allocations of 0–2% for more conservative clients and 2–4% for aggressive profiles, reflecting both client interest and advisers’ continuing need for education about the asset and its products.
Part of Morgan Stanley’s push into crypto is concrete: the bank has expanded its footprint across a spot ETF, wealth management and an e*Trade presence. Its Bitcoin ETP, ticker MSBT, launched with what Oldenberg called Morgan Stanley’s best first-day ETF debut. The product was designed as an institutional-grade construct, with a 14 basis-point management fee and custody arranged through Coinbase and BNY Mellon — an explicit effort to fold traditional financial plumbing into Bitcoin offerings.
Oldenberg emphasized an important distinction that still confuses many clients: owning Bitcoin outright versus holding ETF shares that provide price exposure. “I love the people that tell me like I have exposure to Bitcoin so if something goes wrong… I’m like no you don’t have Bitcoin. You have shares of a Bitcoin ETF that offer you price exposure to Bitcoin,” she said.
That distinction matters operationally. Morgan Stanley may treat clients who use the ETP on its wealth platform as wealth clients and, depending on position size, make lending available against the ETF exposure. Oldenberg cited a “release rate of 50%,” meaning the bank could lend up to half the value of the product for eligible clients.
She also explained why many banks remain cautious about holding Bitcoin directly: the decision is driven less by ideological hostility and more by capital treatment, regulatory obligations and balance-sheet efficiency. For banks to hold Bitcoin more broadly as collateral or on balance sheets, the regulatory and capital environment needs to become more supportive.
Finally, Oldenberg cautioned against lumping all crypto assets together. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and XRP serve different functions and shouldn’t be treated as interchangeable simply because they share the “crypto” label.
At the time of her comments, Bitcoin traded around $62,825.
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