The 2026 FIFA World Cup — staged across North American stadiums in an expanded 48-team format — could turn into a landmark moment for prediction markets and crypto-friendly trading platforms, according to Bernstein analysts.
Why this matters
- The tournament features 104 matches, roughly 60% more “bettable” events than past World Cups, creating a much larger pool of wagering inventory.
- Bernstein projects the World Cup could drive more than $3 billion in incremental handle and as much as $10 billion in broader consumer-volume uplift across sportsbooks and prediction markets over the month-long event.
- That’s striking because the World Cup normally falls in a slow stretch of the sports-betting calendar — meaning it could materially accelerate growth for prediction markets.
What Bernstein is saying
- The firm calls the tournament a “potential watershed moment” that could amplify momentum for prediction platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket and help scale the category beyond its current strongholds.
- Bernstein cites DraftKings’ recent run-up as evidence of increased engagement: May annualized consumer volume rose 24% month-over-month to $1.3 billion, while total volume traded jumped 34% to $3.1 billion after a three-month ramp.
- Bernstein frames prediction markets not as a threat to traditional books but as a new monetization layer for sports engagement — “TikTok, not Napster” — and suggests the World Cup may accelerate customer acquisition into what they call a likely trillion-dollar volume market by 2030.
Crypto platforms leaning in
- Crypto and fintech platforms are using the World Cup to expand prediction offerings. Coinbase, for example, said it crossed $100 million in annualized prediction-markets revenue within two months of launching the product in early 2026, and is offering World Cup contracts via its partnership with Kalshi.
- Robinhood launched World Cup event contracts developed with Rothera, an independent, CFTC-licensed prediction-market exchange. Robinhood invested in Rothera through a joint partnership with Susquehanna International Group.
- Emerging and media-linked platforms are active too: Myriad, a prediction-market platform run by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, currently shows users favoring Spain (18% implied chance) and France (17%).
The bigger picture
- Kalshi and Polymarket have scaled quickly in states such as California, Texas, Georgia and Florida, but Bernstein believes the World Cup could be the catalyst for broader national growth. For crypto-native exchanges and trading platforms, the event presents both a user-acquisition opportunity and a testing ground for product innovation in a heavily regulated marketplace.
Editor’s note: This story was updated after publication to correct Robinhood’s relationship to Rothera.
Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news
