Bitcoin’s weekend nosedive — below $78,000, its weakest close since April — has many traders warning that bullish “hopium” may be running out. The sell-off, driven by profit-taking against a backdrop of thin liquidity and a shortage of fresh buyers, looks like more than a one-off dip: it could be the start of a broader corrective phase.
Why markets slipped
- Corporate demand that helped fuel the rally — most notably MicroStrategy’s (MSTR) aggressive bitcoin purchases — has cooled, leaving fewer natural buyers to absorb selling pressure.
- With liquidity thin, profit-taking has amplified forced selling and derivative liquidations, creating cascades that push prices lower.
What traders and markets are saying
- Eric Crown, a former NYSE Arca options trader who now covers crypto market moves for a large audience, has argued since late October that bitcoin is in a sideways-to-downside phase. He calls renewed optimism about fresh all-time highs or a rotation back from metals into crypto misplaced “hopium.”
- Options positioning supports the more bearish take: traders are increasingly betting on a drop below $75,000 and abandoning $100,000 calls. On Deribit, the dollar notional of active $75,000 put contracts sits at roughly $1.159 billion — nearly matching the $1.168 billion in notional open interest locked in $100,000 calls.
Technical signals point lower
- Several indicators Crown highlights have historically preceded extended pullbacks:
- Monthly MACD crossed down in November — a rare move that in past cycles has signaled longer downturns.
- The weekly 21 vs. 55 EMA recently crossed into bearish territory, an arrangement that often precedes multi-month losses.
- The 2025 yearly chart closed as a “shooting star,” a candlestick pattern frequently associated with medium-term reversals.
Macro context and range targets
- Bitcoin’s behavior has diverged from equities and other risk assets since October, declining while those markets held up — a characteristic late-cycle risk-off pattern where speculative assets are sold first.
- The October crash also flushed many leveraged altcoin positions, reducing appetite among traders to re-enter at elevated levels.
- Crown suggests bitcoin could fall further — potentially into the mid-$50,000s to low-$60,000s — before finding a stable base. He views that zone as a possible accumulation opportunity for long-term exposure rather than the end of crypto’s broader cycle.
Bottom line
Short-term momentum has clearly shifted toward the bears: options flows, technicals and thinning liquidity all point to a higher risk of further downside. For traders and investors, that means tempering expectations for an immediate return to new highs and watching lower support levels — some strategists are already marking the mid-$50k to low-$60k range as the next key battleground.
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