Glassnode says long-term Bitcoin holders are feeling the heat — but nowhere near the worst of past bear markets.
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode flagged a sustained rise in Unrealized Loss among Bitcoin’s long-term holders (LTHs) — defined as addresses holding BTC for more than 155 days. Unrealized Loss measures how much value holders would lose if they sold at today’s price, calculated by comparing each coin’s last transfer price to the current spot price and summing the shortfalls. Glassnode looks at a normalized version, Relative Unrealized Loss, which expresses that loss as a share of market capitalization.
The 30-day simple moving average of the LTH Relative Unrealized Loss has climbed over the past few months, driven by the broader crypto sell-off that began in Q4 2025 and by coins bought near the market top maturing into the LTH cohort. Today the indicator sits at about 14% — the highest level for these “diamond hands” since 2023.
That sounds uncomfortable, but context matters: during the last two major bear markets the same metric spiked to roughly 70% at cycle bottoms. In other words, while current long-term holder pain has increased, it remains far below the historic peaks that have coincided with capitulation and market lows.
Whether this cycle will follow the same pattern and see LTH losses rise toward those prior extremes is unknown. For now, Bitcoin has staged a rebound and is trading back above $72,000, but on-chain signals like the Relative Unrealized Loss will be closely watched for signs of deeper stress — or that a durable bottom is forming.
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